The model applied to
live events.
Every figure is a model output. Every assumption is stated. Every number can be run with your own inputs in a demo session. Analysis is published as events warrant.
Analysis is published when a live event warrants it: a corridor disruption, a policy shift, a market dislocation. Papers are not time-sensitive commentary. They are applied scenario analysis that remains useful as long as the structural dependency it models is unchanged.
Tags allow you to find all papers relevant to a corridor, commodity, vessel class, or topic regardless of when they were published.
A CIA assessment gives Iran 3 to 4 months of runway. That is long enough to exhaust strategic petroleum reserves in most exposed importers. The model identifies which importers carry the highest bilateral crude and LPG exposure, at what percentage of total seaborne supply, and what supply substitution actually costs.
Three pillars, Chinese demand reduction, pipeline rerouting, and Atlantic Basin supply growth, explain why aggregate oil markets have not collapsed. They do not explain who remains exposed. The bilateral data does.
Why the BDTI tells you tanker rates are up 156% but not which importers face binary exposure. The toll breakeven, the LNG no-route problem, and the forward scenario matrix by importer.
Indonesia floated a Malacca transit fee. The question did not go away when they walked it back. The model calculates the diversion threshold by vessel class, the bilateral dependency matrix, and what the CII slow-steaming adjustment does to the Lombok detour cost.
Thailand is fast-tracking a land bridge across the Kra Isthmus as a Malacca alternative. The commercial case for bulk cargo does not hold. The model shows why, and what the land bridge does and does not change for underwriters and commodity desks.
A drought scenario is not binary. The 2023 El Niño cut transits by 36% over nine months, shifted 100M tonnes of grain to longer routes, and imposed a freight cost penalty that fell hardest on importers with no land alternative. The model quantifies grain VaR across three severity bands and names the countries for whom rerouting is not a serious option.
The Chokepoint Dependency Model was locked before the Houthi Red Sea campaign and Panama Canal drought began. Two disruptions then unfolded in the precise corridors the model covers. Here is a systematic account of what the model predicted and what the disruptions confirmed.