What the model does.
How we know it works.
Written for risk professionals who want to understand what is under the hood before a conversation. This document covers model architecture, outputs, validation, and the scope of what the model does and does not do.
A bilateral trade exposure model. Not a monitoring tool.
The Narrows model quantifies the financial exposure of importing countries to disruptions in specific trade corridors. It answers a different question from AIS-based monitoring tools, which measure what is happening to throughput. Narrows measures what a disruption costs — in dollars, by country, by commodity, under a scenario you define.
The model is built on validated bilateral trade flow data matched to corridor-specific dependency scores. It produces three structured outputs: value at risk, rerouting penalty, and fleet at risk. Every parameter the model uses is substitutable with your own assumptions.
Five stages. Each produces a discrete, auditable output.
The model runs in five sequential stages. The transformation at each stage is where the analytical value sits — not in the underlying data, which is available to anyone, but in how it is structured, matched, and scored.
Three outputs. Each answers a specific professional question.
Every output connects to a downstream use case. The model is designed to produce numbers that slot into existing analytical workflows — accumulation models, trading desk pricing, credit stress tests — not numbers that require translation before they can be used.
Dollar-denominated trade exposure by country and commodity under a user-defined disruption. Severity (0–100%) and duration are variable. Capacity sensitivity is adjustable per corridor.
Per-voyage cost overrun by vessel class: detour days, bunker uplift, charter rate differential, and inventory carrying cost. Tagged by audience — underwriter, lender, cargo owner. All rate assumptions substitutable.
Estimated vessel count in-window at event onset, cargo value on water, and portfolio-level rerouting loss across the fleet. The accumulation number for P&I and cargo underwriters.
Strait of Malacca — 100% closure, 14 days.
The following is a live model output, not a hypothetical illustration. Parameters shown are the defaults for this scenario. All can be substituted in a demo session.
Country-level exposure — iron ore
Dependency percentage is a fixed output of the dependency matrix. Duration and severity are the variables you control in the simulator.
Values are 14-day simulation outputs from 2023 base data. Dependency percentages are model-derived from bilateral trade flow analysis.
Route inference outputs are validated against independent aggregated datasets.
The model's corridor assignment logic is validated by checking whether predicted chokepoint shares are directionally consistent with observed vessel traffic distributions from independent sources. Validation is described as directional rather than exact — trade data and vessel traffic data do not map to the same time period or granularity.
Weekly vessel call counts at major ports and chokepoint transit volumes derived from aggregated AIS data. Used to validate total traffic distribution across corridors.
Weekly and monthly aggregated tanker flow data from official energy statistics, covering Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, and Malacca. Primary validation for energy commodity assignments.
Annual statistics on container flows and bulk cargo through major corridors from international shipping bodies. Used for annual cross-check of overall corridor share estimates.
What the model is, and is not.
These limitations are stated because the model is intended to support serious risk analysis. A professional who understands where the model is uncertain is better positioned to use it appropriately — and to substitute their own assumptions where they disagree with ours.
Full documentation is available
under NDA for serious counterparties.
This page describes the model at a level sufficient to evaluate its credibility and fit. Full documentation — including corridor definitions, the complete dependency matrix, simulation API specification, and integration notes — is available on request to qualified counterparties under a standard NDA. Request a demo and we will send the documentation pack before the call.