The due diligence step
that most risk models
do not include.
The Narrows is a trade risk intelligence resource. It exists to be run before a deal closes, a policy locks in, or a facility is underwritten. Not as a monitoring tool. Not as a dashboard. As the step that answers the structural question behind the transaction.
Most risk pricing does not reflect the underlying structure of supply chain constraints.
AIS tracks vessels. PortWatch tracks throughput. Index providers track freight rates. These are monitoring tools. They tell you what is happening to traffic. They do not tell you which bilateral supply chains depend on which corridors, at what percentage of total supply, or what a credible alternative looks like and what it costs.
The Narrows operates at a different layer. It models the structural exposure of importing countries to specific trade corridors, denominated in dollars, at the (importer, corridor, commodity) level. The output is not a signal. It is a number that belongs in a risk model, a credit facility, or an underwriting decision.
The world is generating new constraint points. Chokepoints, ports, borders, shipping lanes that once functioned as frictionless infrastructure are becoming risk variables. As the globalised order fragments and national interests assert themselves, the geography of trade is becoming a risk factor in ways that most models have not yet priced. The Narrows is built to measure that.
The points where the world narrows.
The name refers to the points where constraints are hard, data has meaning, and decisions cannot be deferred. A strait through which 30% of global seaborne trade passes is a narrow. A port that handles the majority of a country's grain imports is a narrow. A corridor that has no viable alternative is a narrow.
At these points, the structure of the world becomes legible. The dependencies are real. The exposure is quantifiable. The decisions that flow from understanding them are consequential. That is where The Narrows works.
Two tools are live. More are in development.
The Port Risk Index scores 3,778 ports across four dimensions of risk: accessibility, reliability, concentration, and political stability. It is free to access at narrows.io/pri. The full dataset is downloadable with no login required after the first visit.
The Chokepoint Dependency Model is the commercial layer on top. It covers 37 maritime risk corridors, $2.15 trillion in matched trade value, 44 importing countries, and 17 commodity classes. It produces three outputs: value at risk, rerouting penalty, and fleet at risk. Every assumption is substitutable.
The analytical framework is not limited to maritime trade. The same approach applies wherever hard constraints concentrate risk and data has real-world implications.
Every demo is a live session. Every assumption is yours to change.
The Narrows is a model run against the interests and priorities of specific counterparties, corridors, and commodities. Every parameter the model uses can be replaced with the client's own assumptions.
Detailed documentation is available under NDA for qualified counterparties.
The methodology came from a different kind of risk work.
Adam Fysh spent several years building quantitative risk frameworks within the United Nations system, working on disaster risk reduction and structural vulnerability analysis in fragile and trade-dependent economies. The work was always the same question in different forms: which bilateral dependencies concentrate the most risk, and what does a credible alternative actually cost.
The transition to maritime trade risk follows directly from that background. The analytical structure that identifies which nations bear the greatest cost when a supply chain breaks also identifies which importers are most exposed when a trade corridor fails. The Narrows applies the same methodology to the geography of global trade.
The analysis published here is primary research. Every assumption is stated. The model reflects one person's careful view of what the data shows and what it does not.
One address. A person replies.
All enquiries, demo requests, press, research collaboration, methodology questions go to the same address. Response time is typically within one business day.
The Narrows tells you what it costs.