The news tells you what happened.
You should run it through The Narrows
to understand what it will cost.
The world is volatile.
Protect your assets, investments and portfolio.
Dollar-denominated exposure, rerouting cost, and fleet-at-risk data. Built for the underwriters, traders, and lenders who need to put a number on it.
All commodities · Sensitivity 1.00 · No alternative route · 2023 data
Every corridor quantified.
The model covers 22 maritime risk corridors across 4 categories — geometric straits, nodal hubs, corridor zones, and infrastructure chokepoints. Select a corridor in the simulator to run your scenario.
UN Comtrade 2023 bilateral data · Values are model outputs at stated severity and duration · All assumptions substitutable in the simulator
Run your numbers through the Narrows. Every assumption is yours to change.
Narrows is a bilateral trade exposure model. It maps seaborne trade flows to the corridors upon which they depend, then runs the scenario you define. Severity, duration, and vessel assumptions that match your view of the event.
- Adjustable severity and duration Set any corridor from 10% to 100% disruption, for any timeframe. The model reflects your scenario.
- Substitutable vessel and market rates Replace default bunker and charter rates with current market inputs. The rerouting penalty updates to reflect your assumptions.
- Country × corridor × commodity granularity Bilateral dependency matrices for 85 importers across 7 commodity classes. Not throughput. This is exposure denominated in dollars.
- Three outputs, one coherent model Value at risk, rerouting penalty, and fleet at risk. Each tagged for the relevant professional question.
PortWatch tells you a disruption is happening. The Narrows tells you what it costs.
Existing tools measure throughput. The Narrows measures exposure. Knowing a corridor is stressed is not the same as knowing how much of your book is at risk or who bears it.
Request a demo| AIS / PortWatch | Narrows | |
|---|---|---|
| Unit of output | Metric tons, transit counts | USD by country & commodity |
| Unit of analysis | Corridor throughput | Country × corridor × commodity |
| Forward-looking | Historical monitoring | User-defined scenarios |
| Assumptions | Fixed methodology | All parameters substitutable |
| Primary user | Policymakers, economists | Underwriters, traders, lenders |
| Rerouting cost | Not modelled | By vessel class & audience |
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 2026.
Iran began charging over $1 million per vessel to transit the strait. 230 loaded tankers are at anchor inside the Gulf. The BDTI is up 156%.
The news explains the event. The model explains the exposure; which importers face binary dependency, what rerouting costs at today's rates, and what the accumulation number looks like across a fleet.
Read the Hormuz analysisBuilt for the people whose decisions depend on getting the number right.
The model runs your scenario in front of you, with your assumptions, on your corridor of interest.
Accumulation underwriters
Your accumulation model tracks hull. The Narrows adds the cargo dependency layer. Which commodities, from which origins, through which corridors, at what bilateral dependency percentage? The fleet-at-risk output is your accumulation number.
Hormuz 30d: 28 VLCCs in-window · $3.4B cargo at riskCommodity trading desks
A crude desk with open positions through Hormuz needs the rerouting cost and delivery delay before pricing the risk. That is not a tail risk, it is a live pricing input. The model runs your vessel class, your rates, your corridor.
Malacca closure: +4 days · $800k voyage overrun per CapesizeProject finance teams
Voyage cost overrun and carrying cost outputs map directly to debt service coverage analysis. Model what a corridor disruption does to freight assumptions in a 15-year financing structure.
Suez 14d: $1.4M voyage overrun · 5% p.a. carrying cost basisSupply chain risk managers
Understand your raw material dependency on specific trade corridors before the disruption, not during it. The bilateral dependency percentage is the basis for a procurement hedge, not just a risk register entry.
South Korea: 78% iron ore via Malacca · 65% crude via HormuzEvery assumption is a conversation,
not a constraint.
If your view of bypass capacity, vessel rates, or corridor sensitivity differs from our defaults, that is a one-parameter change. The demo runs your scenario, in front of you, with an analyst present. No sales funnel. A person will reply.