Risk Intelligence

Every chokepoint
has a number.
Most desks do not have it.

Dollar-denominated exposure, rerouting cost, and fleet-at-risk data.
Built for the underwriters, traders, and lenders who need to put a number on it.

37 corridors modelled. Bilateral dependency to HS-code level. Run it before the disruption, not during it.

app.narrows.io
Model output
Strait of Hormuz: 100% closure, 80 days
All commodities · Sensitivity 1.00 · No alternative route · 2023 data
Value at risk$122.6BUSD
Countries exposed28countries
Japan alone$15.7BUSD
Est. VLCCs in-window75vessels
Portfolio rerouting overrun$74.7Moverrun

Who uses The Narrows

Built for the people whose decisions depend on getting the number right.

The model runs your scenario in front of you, with your assumptions, on your corridor of interest.

P&I clubs · Reinsurers

Accumulation underwriters

Your accumulation model tracks hull. The Narrows adds the cargo dependency layer. Which commodities, from which origins, through which corridors, at what bilateral dependency percentage? The fleet-at-risk output is your accumulation number.

Hormuz: sustained closure · in-Gulf fleet accumulation modelled per vessel class and cargo
Glencore · Trafigura · Vitol · Gunvor

Commodity trading desks

A crude desk with open positions through Hormuz needs the rerouting cost and delivery delay before pricing the risk. That is not a tail risk, it is a live pricing input. The model runs your vessel class, your rates, your corridor.

Malacca closure: +4 days · $800k voyage overrun per Capesize
Banks · ECAs · Infrastructure lenders

Project finance teams

Voyage cost overrun and carrying cost outputs map directly to debt service coverage analysis. Model what a corridor disruption does to freight assumptions in a 15-year financing structure.

Suez 14d: $1.4M voyage overrun · 5% p.a. carrying cost basis
Industrials · Energy majors · Large importers

Supply chain risk managers

Understand your raw material dependency on specific trade corridors before the disruption, not during it. The bilateral dependency percentage is the basis for a procurement hedge, not just a risk register entry.

South Korea: 45% crude via Malacca · 71.5% crude via Hormuz
Port Risk Index

3,778 ports scored.
Across four dimensions of risk.

The Narrows Port Risk Index applies an INFORM-style composite methodology to every major port in the World Port Index. Physical accessibility, operational reliability, trade concentration, and political stability: each scored, each decomposable, one composite number per port.

narrows.io/pri · Port Risk Index · 3,778 ports
Durban
South Africa · Data tier A · All four dimensions scored
Narrows Port Risk Index 1.52
Dimension 1
Accessibility
0.52/ 10
Dimension 2
Reliability
4.33/ 10
Dimension 3
Concentration
3.38/ 10
Dimension 4
Stability
0.70/ 10
Global PRI distribution · 3,778 ports · geometric mean composite
Durban · 1.29 0.65 2.0 3.65
Rank ↕PortCountry PRI ↓D1D2D3D4
3,778AdenYemen3.641.56.72.66.6
3,803Nueva GeronaCuba3.125.95.91.51.8
3,802Puerto CabezasNicaragua2.946.35.02.01.2
2,515DurbanSouth Africa1.290.54.33.40.4
1Jurong IslandSingapore0.71
↓ 3,772 more ports · open the full index free
Open the Port Risk Index → 3,778 ports · free · no login after first visit

Every assumption is a conversation,
not a constraint.

If your view of bypass capacity, vessel rates, or corridor sensitivity differs from our defaults, that is a one-parameter change. The demo runs your scenario, in front of you, with an analyst present. No sales funnel. A person will reply.

fysh@narrows.io · A person will reply.